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17) The Financial Model: How to Forecast Real Margins (Without Tables) Build your landed cost per case from the ground up: Materials (ingredients + primary/secondary packaging) Conversion (the co-packers fee) Stabilization tolls (if HPP/retort) Waste/loss factor (13% typical, more if foamy/viscous) Inbound freight to plant + outbound freight to 3PL Warehousing and handling fees Compliance costs (certifications, audits, label changes) Then layer: Trade spend, slotting, and promotions Distributor margins Retailer margins Returns/damages reserve Sanity-check: Can you hit target gross margin at realistic velocity
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